Links Experience

Many past contenders have a background in links golf, whether through the European Tour or consistent success in previous Open Championships.

• Betting Angle: Prioritise players who have demonstrated comfort on firm, windy layouts. Look for strong ball-strikers who can flight the ball effectively in changing conditions.

 

Weather Watch

The Open is renowned for unpredictable conditions—driving rain one day, blazing sunshine the next.

• Betting Angle: In-play punters should stay attuned to the forecast. Players with early or late tee times can benefit from calmer windows, offering valuable live-betting opportunities.

 

Favourites vs. Mid-Tier

Despite the testing nature of links golf, many champions still come from the upper echelon of the betting market. However, there’s room for mid-priced contenders.

• Historical Data: Roughly half the winners (2018–2024) were among the top 10 favourites, while a couple emerged in the 25/1 to 50/1 range.

• Betting Angle: Combine proven favourites—particularly those with a history of strong finishes at The Open—with mid-range picks who have the right skill set and recent form.

 

Potential for Surprise Packages

Though true longshots rarely lift the Claret Jug, The Open has seen a few underdogs grab a top-5 or top-10 finish in recent years.

• Betting Angle: If you fancy a bigger price, look for players with a strong short game and experience in windy, coastal conditions. Target them for top-10 or top-20 markets rather than outright.

 

Weekend Momentum

Multiple champions over this period surged ahead on Saturday or Sunday, capitalising on calmer conditions or posting low rounds while others struggled.

• Betting Angle: For in-play betting, focus on players whose ball-striking remains consistent despite the weather. A sudden hot streak with the putter can create separation on a tough links layout.

 

Numbers to Note

• Typical Winning Score: Often hovers around single digits under par, though weather can push it higher or lower.

• Top-10 Finishers’ Odds: About half hail from the top 20 in the betting market; the rest come from the mid-tier or occasionally the triple-digit bracket.

• Champions’ Pre-Tournament Odds: Roughly half were amongst the top 10 favourites; the rest tended to sit in the 25/1–50/1 zone.

 

Conclusion

The Open Championship demands a blend of technical skill, creativity, and adaptability to ever-changing weather. Look for players with proven links form and recent success in windy conditions. Combining one or two established favourites with a few mid-range punts—and perhaps one longshot in a finishing-position market—should give you a well-rounded approach to the year’s final major.

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Check Open leaderboards and betting odds for 2018-2024 here